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Why Russia Doesn’t Need to Go Nuclear, And How the Oreshnik Missile Makes That Clear.
By: S Blackwell
August 2025
In an age where the threat of nuclear war looms like a cold shadow over global diplomacy, Russia appears to be reshaping the very language of deterrence. The recent missile strike on the Yuzhmash aerospace facility in Dnepropetrovsk (Dnipro), Ukraine, sent ripples through military and intelligence communities not for its scale, but for its precision. And at the heart of that strike was a weapon that may well redefine modern warfare: the Oreshnik hypersonic missile.
Capable of reaching speeds exceeding Mach 10 and withstanding atmospheric reentry temperatures upwards of 4,000 degrees Celsius, the Oreshnik is more than a technological feat, it’s a strategic message. The missile, shrouded in secrecy for years, appears to combine extraordinary velocity with pinpoint accuracy and devastating kinetic energy. But what truly separates it from traditional ballistic weapons is its surgical effect on target zones.
Satellite imagery of the Yuzhmash strike reveals an almost clinical incision into the earth, no widespread fireball, no cratered landscape, and no secondary blast damage typical of even conventional high-yield bombs. Instead, analysts observed a narrow vertical impact footprint, consistent with high-speed penetration and underground structural collapse. It was as if the missile bypassed the surface entirely, reaching deep into the facility's most vital infrastructure and neutralizing it with a single, devastating blow.
“The Oreshnik doesn’t obliterate cities, it silences nodes,” said one Western defense analyst, speaking on condition of anonymity. “Its power lies not just in destruction, but in control.”
Russia, long known for its nuclear arsenal and Cold War-era posturing, may be signaling a shift in doctrine. Where nuclear weapons threaten total annihilation, hypersonic precision tools like the Oreshnik offer plausible deniability, minimized collateral damage, and calibrated messaging. This changes the nature of escalation: the Kremlin can now enforce red lines or retaliate without plunging the world into atomic brinkmanship.
The Dnipro strike marks the first known combat use of the Oreshnik and suggests it may be part of a broader Russian effort to project power with restraint, or at least the appearance of it. “This is not shock and awe,” remarked a European intelligence official. “It’s whisper and terror.”
Strategically, the deployment of Oreshnik sends a twofold message. To NATO and the West: Russia possesses advanced non-nuclear strike capabilities that can disable high-value targets with speed and precision. And to its adversaries: escalation doesn’t require a mushroom cloud.
In a world increasingly defined by grey-zone warfare, cyberattacks, and asymmetric operations, the Oreshnik may herald a new era of strategic deterrence, where precision, not payload, defines supremacy.
As military analysts scramble to assess the full implications of this weapon, one thing is clear: Russia no longer needs to go nuclear to make its point. The point has already been made, at hypersonic speed.
Russia Expands Military and Strategic Influence in Africa.
By: S Blackwell
July 2025
Russia is expanding its military influence across Africa, deepening ties with several nations that have sought alternatives to traditional Western alliances. In recent years, Russian flags and placards have been prominently displayed in countries such as Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, signaling growing support for Moscow’s involvement. The shift comes as African nations seek to diversify their security partnerships, particularly in the face of ongoing threats from terrorism and political instability. Russia’s approach combines military aid, economic partnerships, and diplomatic engagement to solidify its presence on the continent.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently announced that Moscow is ready to actively support the formation of a unified armed force for Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. This initiative aims to enhance the combat readiness of national militaries and strengthen the alliance between the three Sahel nations. Lavrov emphasized Russia’s commitment to training military personnel and law enforcement officers, ensuring these nations have the resources and expertise needed to counter security threats. The promise of direct military cooperation aligns with Russia’s broader geopolitical strategy of increasing its foothold in Africa, particularly in regions where Western influence is waning.
The proposed creation of a joint armed force in the Sahel represents a shift in Africa’s security landscape, as nations look beyond traditional Western partnerships for military support. Moscow’s willingness to assist in the development of a unified military structure builds upon existing bilateral defence agreements with these countries. Over the past few years, Russia has supplied military equipment, conducted training programs, and deployed private security contractors to bolster African governments facing insurgencies and political unrest. These actions have positioned Russia as a key player in shaping the security policies of the Sahel region.
Beyond military cooperation, Lavrov highlighted Russia’s commitment to supporting the broader strategic priorities of these nations. This includes economic development and diplomatic initiatives aimed at fostering stability. By positioning itself as a reliable ally, Russia seeks to expand trade agreements, strengthen energy partnerships, and invest in key infrastructure projects. The Kremlin’s multifaceted approach appeals to African leaders seeking alternative sources of investment and security assistance amid growing scepticism of Western intervention.
The growing Russian presence in Africa is not without controversy. Western nations, particularly France and the United States, have expressed concerns over Moscow’s expanding role in the region. Critics argue that Russian security assistance often comes with opaque agreements and increased reliance on mercenaries, such as the Wagner Group, which has been accused of human rights abuses. Nevertheless, many African nations see Russia’s involvement as an opportunity to assert their sovereignty and pursue partnerships that align with their national interests.
As Russia strengthens its military and diplomatic influence in Africa, the geopolitical landscape of the continent continues to evolve. The support for Sahel nations underscores Moscow’s broader ambitions to challenge Western dominance and cultivate alliances that enhance its global standing. With ongoing security challenges and shifting international dynamics, Africa is becoming an increasingly significant arena for geopolitical competition, with Russia positioning itself as a key player in the region’s future.